Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 12 June 2018

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BULLION

Gold prices fell nearly 1 percent last week as supply remained dominant on higher levels. Distribution can be seen for last few weeks as prices are not approaching towards new highs that were seen last in April month.One can expect prices to find immediate hurdle near Rs.31100 mark whereas Rs.31350 as key region of resistance for the week. On the other hand prices are getting support near Rs.30800 mark and a convincing break below the same can allow prices to witness some serious pressure towards Rs.30500 level. Trade tensions remain in the markets ahead of the G7 summit, which will include talks on the US-instigated global trade dispute.

ENERGY
Anxiety amongst the oil traders was clearly visible as counter continued its losing streak for the second week in a row. Oil prices plunged close to about 3.68% to settle at Rs.4428 on MCX. The decline was strong and now over extended with RSI trading in oversold zone close to 22 on four hourly charts.Keeping in view the price structure a small bounce is on the cards which will take prices to next resistance levels of Rs.4550 from where fresh sellers are expected to step in.It was a tough bout for bears as decline in the energy counter could not sustain and prices recouped by end of the week closing lower by 0.5% at Rs.198.40. Bulls gained strength as prices witnessed a bounce from 20 EMA on daily charts.

Base Metals

Threemonth base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange consolidated on the morning of Friday June 8 amid concerns that the latest trade figures from China could stoke further trade tensions.This as world leaders gather in Canada for the 44th G7 Summit where likely topics for discussion include global economic issues such as trade relations and tariffs.

SPICES

There was no strong movement for Jeer even as prices traded slight firm with markets finding immediate support near the 16000 mark even as lack of strong demand amidst moderate arrivals prevented strong recovery in Jeer rates. Rising export demand from China amidst falling arrivals kept supporting the price. Slight weak trend persisted for Turmeric with good monsoon reports pressurizing prices. Prospects of rising export and domestic demand could support prices but early arrival of Monsoon and its expected favourable impact on the new crop sowing kept uptrend limited.

OILSEEDS

Edible oil market was subdued as there was no favourable news regarding possibilities of further hike in import duties. Futures have reversed the gains in last 8-10 trading sessions. The upward trend had eased of late mainly due to weak tone in palm oil and soy bean. The USDA report released this month was perceived as neutral from price movement perspective therefore with futures now trading reasonably lower possibility for a long lasting downward movement seems lesser for the current month.

Mentha Oil prices stabilized at these levels as rains in growing areas in UP have created apprehensions of that having adverse impact on the harvesting of the crop. This too supported market sentiments. Good crop sowing reports have been noted earlier this year. The peak harvest season will be June and July therefore traders expect harvesting activities to rise in coming weeks.

GUAR COMPLEX
Prices found some support at these lower levels even as sentiments remained weak on good monsoon reports. However market sources anticipate further fall to be limited with no bearishness in overall Fundamental factors as such. There is still time for monsoon to reach growing areas in Rajasthan. Prices are falling due to bearish market perceptions for now.

OTHOERS

RM seed commenced the session on strong note but profit taking due to weakness in soybean and edible oils pushed closing prices slightly lower. However In forthcoming sessions summer demand lowering arrivals and drop in the crop acreage shall be influential in keeping the upward trend intact. As broad based view is bullish futures are able to recover sharply whenever sharp fall occurs.

Rates shot up for Cotton on the International and domestic markets as fundamentals remained strong as per Cotton Association of India (CAI) Indian production for 2017-18 has been lowered by 5 lakh bales of 170 kg each to 362 lakh bales. Total supply is estimated at 412 lakh bales. Higher consumption of 330 lakh bales has been reported with increased export possibilities by 5 lakh bales to 60 lakh bales.

COCUDAKL
From last couple of trading days market is trading with the positive sentiment, as the level of 1300 reacting as a strong support level. We are expecting that market can still trade with the bullish trend for this week to the level of 1660 and then 1700. Last week market started the week on positive note and continue the same for the entire week. It made a high of 1463 during the week with overall gain of 4% on weekly basis.

For this week, if it breaks the level of 1510 then it can test the level of 1660 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 1450.

DHANIYA

Market is continuously trading with the negative trend and we can expect further down trend movement in it for this week also supported by 100 days moving average. It made a low of 4186 during the week and closed at the level of 4222 with overall loss of 2.30% on weekly basis. Technically it consolidating on the charts with the negative bias & RSI and for this week, we can expect downside movement in it.

For this week, if it breaks the level of 4240 then it can test the level of 4090 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 4305

EURINR

Last week EURINR Jun Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 79.9200 during the week and closed at 79.6100 with the overall gain of almost 1% on weekly basis. Technically it formed Bullish Engulfing Candlestick pattern on the weekly chart with the RSI entering in to the positive territory and for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it.

For this week, if it breaks the level of 79.8200 then it can test the level of 80.3125 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 79.4975

JPYINR

Last week JPYINR Jun Futures started the week on negative note and made a low of 60.9350 but till the end of the week, all of its earlier losses were erased and it closed at 62.0650 with the overall gain of 0.62% on weekly basis. Technically it consolidating on the charts with the negative bias & RSI and for this week, we can expect downside movement in it.

For this week, if it breaks the level of 61.3600 then it can test the level of 60.8600 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 61.6625

Gold

Last week Gold started the week on positive note and continued the same for the entire week. It made a high of 31334 during the week and closed at 31215 with the overall gain of almost 1% on weekly basis. Market is continuously sustaining above the level of 30000 indicating bullish trend from short term to mid term basis. Technically it formed Bullish Engulfing Candlestick pattern on the weekly chart with the RSI entering in to the positive territory and for this week, we can expect further upside movement in it.

For this week, if it breaks the level of 31140 then it can test the level of 31290 during the week. One can make buy position in it by maintaining a SL 31075.

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